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Obama’s Long Range Strategy
By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report
July 30, 2008 —
In 1960, Richard Nixon made a foolish promise to campaign in every state and found himself flying to Alaska, with three electoral votes, in the final days of the campaign, when he should have been in Illinois, which he narrowly lost, along with the presidency. Since then, presidential candidates have been more strategic in their campaigns, targeting the states they need to amass a majority in the Electoral College and more or less ignoring the rest. This year, however, Barack Obama is taking a Nixonian approach and pursuing what his campaign calls a 50-state strategy. Some political experts have derided it as naïve and a waste of valuable campaign resources. A closer look, however, indicates that there’s method in Obama’s madness. He’s using his wide net not just to win the presidential election, but to build the kind of political base he will need to hit the ground running in January 2009, when he’ll probably have about six months to make his legislative mark. Thus, before he left on his overseas tour, Obama named Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia -- all normally Republican states where Obama has significant staff presence -- as states where the race is competitive. Moreover, Obama is also putting major resources in Texas, including dozens of paid staffers. No one, not even Obama’s staff, believes he will beat John McCain in the Lone Star State. However, the Obama effort could pay off in a big way down the road. At its most effective, the increased Obama-inspired Democratic vote could help defeat US Sen. John Cornyn (R), who raises big money but low poll numbers. Even if that long shot doesn’t happen, a bigger Democratic vote could help Congressmen Nick Lampson (D) and Ciro Rodriguez (D) keep their seats, possibly help Larry Joe Doherty (D) defeat US Rep. Mike McCaul (D) in the somewhat competitive 10th District, and maybe even give Democrats control of the Texas House of Representatives and a bigger say in post-census congressional redistricting. Similarly, Obama-led registration drives in Georgia and Louisiana might not put either state in his column, but the increase in Democratic voters -- both from African-Americans and from young people generally -- could help Congressman Jim Marshall (D) cement his hold on the 8th District in the Peach State, as well as boost the size of the Democratic minority in the legislature. In Louisiana, the new Obama voters might well help give US Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) a big, not razor-thin, victory, and possibly put one or two more Democrats in Congress. And in North Carolina, the Obama impact is the big unknown in the US Senate race between US Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) and her less well-known but hard-charging opponent, state Sen. Kay Hagan (D). Indeed, the surge of African-American and young voters across the South -- in both Carolinas, Alabama, Mississippi, Virginia, etc., etc. -- could do more than force McCain to spend valuable time and scarce resources to hold his base. It could transform the Southern political landscape, making the African-American minority a significantly more powerful force, putting more Democrats in office and more Republicans in harm’s way. This would mean that in January, Southern Democrats -- black and white -- in Congress will be beholden to Obama. They will thus be far more inclined to support what might be controversial proposals coming from the Obama White House -- higher taxes, more spending on domestic programs, more regulation of business. In addition, Southern Republicans who may have seen their margins shrink in the wake of new Democratic voters showing up at the polls, may be less inclined to give Obama major problems in Congress. So give Obama and his strategists credit. Sending staffers to Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia and other Southern states, most of which are probably going to McCain in November, may not be so foolish after all. Obama has the money, and he’s using it to build the kind of base from which he can govern once he’s in office. A big caveat, however. Obama’s organizational skills have been deservedly lauded, but his team was at its best in caucuses, where turning out a relatively small number of voters could reap big rewards. In the big state primaries -- Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, California, etc. -- Hillary Clinton’s media-based campaign out-maneuvered him. So there’s no guarantee Obama’s long-term strategy will work in the McCain-leaning states. Nevertheless, like so much in Obama’s campaign, it is something new in American politics.
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