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Senate Money Reveals Competitive Races

By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report

July 28, 2008 — The 2^nd Quarter financial reports indicate some highly competitive US Senate races are developing in the South. Although incumbents -- as usual -- are raising the most money, some of the challengers are amassing sufficient funds to finance a winning campaign. The most financially competitive races are Louisiana, where US Sen. Mary Landrieu’s (D) opponent, John N. Kennedy (R), is now raising some respectable cash, and in North Carolina, where US Sen. Elizabeth Dole’s (R) challenger, Kay Hagan, has begun to build a significant war chest. In Kentucky, US Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) continues to demonstrate fundraising muscle, but his opponent, businessman Bruce Lunsford, has shown he’s willing to spend from his personal fortune to keep pace. Finally, the money tea-leaves indicate the Democrats are all but a lead-pipe cinch to pick up the open seat in Virginia. For complete financial data on Senate elections in every Southern state, click on “Resources,” then on “US Senate and House FEC Reports.”

Here are details on the most contested races.

Alabama. If there was ever any Democratic optimism that state Sen. Vivian Figures (D) could give US Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) a significant challenge, the money proves otherwise: Sessions $4,308,000 cash on hand; Figures $18,000.

Georgia. The two Democrats vying in the August 5 runoff to oppose US Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) don’t have enough cash on hand to pay for a decent runoff campaign, much less give Chambliss a battle in November. Chambliss has a hefty $4,082,000 on hand; ex-DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones (D) has $150,000 and 2006 lite/gov candidate Jim Martin (D) has $176,000.

Kentucky. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) has a very impressive $10,934,000 on hand to Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford’s $1,341,000. Lunsford can, has and will write checks. The race is likely to be competitive financially -- and very hard fought.

Louisiana. US Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) has twice as much cash-on-hand as her challenger John Kennedy (R) -- $5,515,000 to $2,706,000, but Kennedy matched her in money raised during the 2^nd Quarter.

Mississippi. In the contest for the unexpired term of ex-US Sen. Trent Lott (R), US Sen. Roger Wicker (R) is raising a war chest that suggests talk that this will be a close race may be off the mark. Wicker has $2,951,000, ex-Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) $716,000. Although some polls show that Musgrove is better known than Wicker, the former governor will still need a bigger bank account to win this race.

North Carolina. US Sen. Elizabeth Dole’s (R) money numbers are better than her poll numbers, which have been weak for months; she’s got $2,706,000 on hand, and there was more before she spent a fistful on television spots. Her opponent, state Sen. Kay Hagan (D) has a not-yet-impressive $1,214,000 on hand, but she’s been raising more of late as she keeps up running attacks on Dole -- both for supporting the Bush policies and for recently voting more with the Democrats as November approaches.

Oklahoma. US Sen. James Inhofe (R) has more than a three-to-one lead in funds over his foe, state Sen. Andrew Rice (D) -- $2,454,000 to $729,000. Inhofe is already on TV.

South Carolina. US Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) won his primary with ease and looks even stronger in the General Election. He has $3,593,000 on hand to a pitiful $1,000 for socially conservative Democrat Bob Conley and even more pitiful $371 for Michael Cone, a liberal Democrat who lost the primary and is now running on the “Working Families Party” ticket.

Tennessee. In the Democratic contest for the nomination to oppose US Sen. Lamar Alexander (R), ex-state Democratic chair Bob Tuke has $260,000 on hand for the August 7 primary, to former Knox County Clerk Mike Padgett’s (D) $32,000. But neither is getting the kind of money he will need to go up against Alexander, who has $3,216,000.

Texas. State Rep. Rick Noriega (D) was getting some impressive poll numbers for a while, but he has yet to scratch in the money department. US Sen. John Cornyn (R), with $9,368,000, has more money in his campaign kitty than any other US Senator running this year; Noriega has $916,000.